Welcome to The Shotgun Seat’s coverage of the 2016 Country Music Association awards coverage! As with every year, we have four of our writers (Annie Dineen, Markus Meyer, Christina Bosch and Lydia Simonetti) make a prediction for each major category, as well as their personal pick from each category. Want to let us know what you think? Hit us up on social media, or in the comments section! The CMA awards are set to air November 2nd, 8/7 Central.
Entertainer of the Year
Will Win:
Garth Brooks
Luke Bryan – Markus Meyer, Annie Dineen
Chris Stapleton – Christina Bosch
Carrie Underwood – Lydia Simonetti
Keith Urban
Should Win:
Garth Brooks
Luke Bryan
Chris Stapleton – Annie Dineen, Lydia Simonetti, Christina Bosch
Carrie Underwood – Markus Meyer
Keith Urban
Markus: Should be a two-way race between Underwood and Stapleton, as both have been tremendous ambassadors for the genre. More likely? Luke Bryan, who has been both commercially weaker and a critical black hole relative to the two aforementioned candidates.
Annie: Maybe this is wishful thinking, but then again, Stapleton has proven he can be the dark horse for any and all awards.
Christina: Stapleton had another huge year, I think they will award him with this one this year.
Lydia: Carrie Underwood has this – she’s had a huge year with the success of the new album and her “Storyteller” Tour.
Male Vocalist
Will Win:
Chris Stapleton – MM, AD, LS, CB
Eric Church
Tim McGraw
Keith Urban
Dierks Bentley
Should Win:
Chris Stapleton – AD, CB
Eric Church – MM, LS
Tim McGraw
Keith Urban
Dierks Bentley
Markus: Urban and Bentley are in this category off some of their weakest material, while Church and McGraw off some of their best. Should be a shoe-in for Stapleton, but could see a Bentley or Church darkhorse here.
Annie: Thinking this is Chris’ for the taking.
Lydia: As Markus said, this is off some of Eric Church’s best material. I really think this is going to Church with all of the success of Mr. Misunderstood. Stapleton has a major shot at this too though.
Christina: I have no doubt Stapleton will take this one home.
Female Vocalist
Will Win:
Kelsea Ballerini – CB
Miranda Lambert – MM
Carrie Underwood – AD, LS
Maren Morris
Kacey Musgraves
Should Win:
Kelsea Ballerini
Miranda Lambert
Carrie Underwood – MM, AD, CB, LS
Maren Morris
Kacey Musgraves
Markus: Death, taxes and a Miranda Lambert win in Female Vocalist of the Year.
Annie: Gonna rule Carrie for this one. Miranda’s been between projects and I don’t see a newer country queen taking the crown.
Christina: Although Kelsea is still considered a new artist, her first 3 singles went all the way to the top of the charts, I have a feeling she will be victorious here.
Lydia: Carrie all the way on this.
Vocal Group of the Year
Will Win:
Lady Antebellum
Little Big Town – MM, AD, CB
Old Dominion – LS
Rascal Flatts
Zac Brown Band
Should Win:
Lady Antebellum
Little Big Town
Old Dominion
Rascal Flatts
Zac Brown Band – MM, AD, LS, CB
Markus: No one deserves this. What a terrible category, commercially and critically. I’ll pick Zac Brown Band, only because they’ve been ripped off before and deserve to get at least one.
Annie: Have Lady Antebellum even been a band this year? Sorry, digress. Can I write in Rob Thomas and Charles Kelley singing “Smooth”? I’m with Markus here – would love to see ZBB get some love here. It really bums me out that Zac’s been so bitter about a perceived lack of being able to experiment sonically by the country community, and personally I think Sir Rosevelt’s first tastes have been killer, so shame on all you for putting Zac in a box!!! (Just kidding, except not really at all.)
Christina: I agree with Annie & Markus here, it would be great to see a ZBB win this year. Their Black Out the Sun tour was one of the best of the summer.
Lydia: Completely agree it SHOULD go to Zac Brown Band, but I’m thinking Old Dominion is going to get the win on this solely due to their radio success and the buzz they’ve generated out on tour with Kenny Chesney.
Duo of the Year
Will Win:
Florida Georgia Line – MM, AD,CB, LS
Dan + Shay
Brothers Osborne
Joey + Rory
Maddie & Tae
Should Win:
Florida Georgia Line – AD
Dan + Shay
Brothers Osborne- CB, LS
Joey + Rory – MM
Maddie & Tae
Markus: There’s some competition here, which is nice. Still think an FGL win is likely, but Brothers Osborne have some industry momentum, and Joey + Rory (RIP) could pick up some sympathy votes.
Annie: I would joke that I’m an FGL apologist, but I won’t even imply the negative because I was 100% impressed with their latest, Dig Your Roots. FGL aren’t everyone’s cup of tea, but a) they laugh all the way to the bank, b) their latest release, beginning with “Confession” and “H.O.L.Y.” as lyric and melodic pivot points, respectively, showed real strength and growth.
Christina: I can’t remember a time when FGL did not win this category on any award show however in my eyes, Brothers Osborne can do no wrong, so in my opinion whenever they are nominated, they SHOULD win.
Lydia: Not sure anyone has a chance to take this away from FGL in the near future. I’m completely with Christina here, Brothers Osborne “can do no wrong”. Would love to see them steal this away from FGL but probably not gonna happen this year.
Single of the Year
Will Win:
“Die a Happy Man,” Thomas Rhett – MM, AD, CB, LS
“Humble and Kind,” Tim McGraw
“My Church,” Maren Morris
“Nobody to Blame,” Chris Stapleton
“Record Year,” Eric Church
Should Win:
“Die a Happy Man,” Thomas Rhett
“Humble and Kind,” Tim McGraw – MM
“My Church,” Maren Morris
“Nobody to Blame,” Chris Stapleton – LS
“Record Year,” Eric Church – AD, CB
Markus: An exceptional category. I think “Die a Happy Man” was too big to ignore, but I could see this going any of five ways. Tim’s is my personal favorite, but as I said, they’re all wonderful.
Annie: I’ll echo Markus here. I’m loving that Maren and “Record Year” are here, and “Humble and Kind” was a moment. But I think “Die A Happy Man” will take it home, if only because it topped radio for six freaking weeks, which is pretty much unheard of these days. Also, I’d put money on the #goals hashtag spiking in usage for the entirety of that song’s run, for whatever that’s worth in 2016 social media currency.
Christina: “Die a Happy Man” is most likely going to win this one however I love all of these songs and feel that “Record Year” is Church’s best single from this album so far.
Lydia: While I’m going with what seems to be the obvious “Die a Happy Man,” I am really hopeful Stapleton wins this.
Song of the Year
Will Win:
“Burning House,” Camaron “Cam” Ochs, Tyler Johnson, Jeff Bhasker
“Die a Happy Man,” Sean Douglas, Thomas Rhett, Joe Spargur
“Humble and Kind,” Lori McKenna – MM, AD,CB, LS
“My Church,” busbee, Maren Morris
“Record Year,” Eric Church, Jeff Hyde
Should Win:
“Burning House,” Camaron “Cam” Ochs, Tyler Johnson, Jeff Bhasker
“Die a Happy Man,” Sean Douglas, Thomas Rhett, Joe Spargur
“Humble and Kind,” Lori McKenna – MM, AD, CB, LS
“My Church,” busbee, Maren Morris
“Record Year,” Eric Church, Jeff Hyde
Markus: Another remarkable group. Five great songs, and I’ll go with Lori McKenna’s as the eventual winner, and my personal vote.
Annie: I’ll pick Lori here too, also because it champions the solo co-write. But agreed – this category has no apologizing to do.
Christina: Agree again with Markus and Annie I would love to see the iconic solo write of Lori McKenna’s “Humble and Kind” get this kind of recognition.
Lydia: Agreed. This is just one of those must love songs. Lori should win this hands down.
Album of the Year
Will Win:
Black, Dierks Bentley
Hero, Maren Morris
Mr. Misunderstood, Eric Church – MM, LS
Ripcord, Keith Urban
Storyteller, Carrie Underwood – AD, CB
Should Win:
Black, Dierks Bentley
Hero, Maren Morris
Mr. Misunderstood, Eric Church – MM, AD, CB, LS
Ripcord, Keith Urban
Storyteller, Carrie Underwood
Markus: One great album (Eric), one good album (Carrie), one good pop album (Maren), one bad pop album (Keith) and one middle-of-the-road (Dierks). All over the place in terms of quality, but I think the best of the group can pull it off.
Annie: Mr. Misunderstood was absolutely amazing and if you aren’t moved when the gospel choir kicks in in “Mistress Named Music,” there’s a digital door I’d like to show you to. I’m guessing Storyteller will take it here, but that’s not a prediction I’d put a lot of money behind being right about.
Christina: Mr. Misunderstood is an incredible album from the first note til the end, Eric Church was one of my favorites of the year but considering Church’s track records (only winning two CMA awards) it is doubtfully his genius will be recognized. Storyteller was good but not great in my opinion but I think Carrie will win this one.
Lydia: Mr. Misunderstood is probably my favorite album from this last year. Love every part of it and I think this might just be the year (finally) they recognize it.
New Artist of the Year
Will Win:
Kelsea Ballerini – CB
Brothers Osborne
Maren Morris – MM, AD, LS
Old Dominion
Cole Swindell
Should Win:
Kelsea Ballerini
Brothers Osborne – MM, AD, CB, LS
Maren Morris
Old Dominion
Cole Swindell
Markus: Public Service Announcement: Cole Swindell is not a new artist. I fully expect Maren to pull this out, though they all have some potential for a win.
Annie: Maren’s buzz has been on point since her debut, and I think she’ll probably take this one home. I’d love to see a Bros. Osborne moment here though. If this is based on touring though (Cole notwithstanding – what exactly are the limitations on new here?) I’d say Old Dominion – being out on tour with Kenny Chesney was apparently an airtight choice, because their live crowds show up and show up STRONG.
Christina: I hate to be repetitive but Kelsea’s three number one hits will take the cake here even though I feel that Brothers Osborne’s debut album Pawn Shop was one of the best albums of the year and out on tour with Miranda Lambert, they absolutely crushed it every night.
Lydia: Maren Morris is on track to win this. I think she’s been hotter than Kelsea this year and the radio success from “My Church” and “80’s Mercedes” really locks it in for me with this one. Agree that it should go to Brothers Osborne though.